A bump

Pathetic as it was, it is the first movement in five trading days. The Q's are now off the lower band. And just might move higher with all the ferocity and enthusiasm of a three toed sloth.

It's all in the stars

Cassopeia formation on QQQQ. That is bullish.

Do You Feel Like You are Tackling the Air?

You are a linebacker poised to make an open field tackle and the running back zigs then zags then spins and you are left tackling the air instead of the running back. Pretty much the same way the stock market is making us feel right now, head fakes, false moves, and we are left holding nothing but air. Not even the money bag.

We are still at a buying level, unless we are not.

Monthly Review

Looking back on transactions closed is the best way I know of to learn from your mistakes, habits, and impulses. Depending on your trading activity the look back period could be annually, quarterly, monthly, or if you are very active, weekly. The important thing is to look at why you bought, why you sold, the activity of the equity after you sold, and whether you profited or not.

Personally I look back at the previous month. I usually allow some time to pass, so the trades and dust can settle, and that allows me some distance to gain perspective, and to put the month somewhat out of mind, so I can look back objectively.

In December, I closed out 16 trade, nine of them bearish or insurance trades and seven longs. The month was about a 15% loss, which sounds extreme but for the portfolio I trade really is not. It is disappointing however and hard to pay the bills if this trend continues.

There were several exits made that were perfectly executed, one profit was allowed to go into a loss, and one exit was made prematurely. The three largest losses accounted for 75% of the trading losses, one entry should never have been made, and one, ABX (gold stock) was stopped out before a major reversal.

Premature entry was the worst mistake made repeatedly, impatience continues to be the biggest bugaboo to overcome.

Riding the lower band

If you are a betting man hopefully you took your bets off quickly after the most minuscule of rallies Tuesday. Never bet against a chart riding either of the bollinger bands assume they will ride them until they stop. Especially when the bands are widening out like fish ips.

Are you a betting man or woman?

If so, bet on a rally tomorrow. Tighten up stops on insurance if you want to turn a quick profit.

QQQQ's

The Q has come down from its overbought condition and is now touching the short term upward sloping trend line. While there seems to be little catalyst on the horizon to send it reversing its course there does seem to be a lot of short term bearishness which might allow some time for contemplation. While we think of a reason to resume buying.

Detachment

Maintaining an emotional detachment allows the mind to be in the proper frame for analyzing the situation. If you are glued to the pundits on CNBC with their ever changing opinions that are calling for Armageddon or golden riches it is impossible to maintain detachment. Your analysis must be untainted by gibberish. Face it, if they knew that of which they speak they would be trading from a yacht, not spouting off to the entire world.

Nothing happened to day, and that is probably good

This age of data overload is proof that the right information does not mean profits. The worst year in sixty years on the stock market, proves that. We have more data then ever and there were more losses then ever.

It is what you do with the information, that what is important.

At the crossroads....again

We are at a juncture, make or break time short term. If the Q's can break out here, it could be the start of something sustainable. If recent history is any indication though we are due for a retrenchment. If you have profits protect them, if not insure your longs.